Enrollment Decline & E10

PUSD commissions the firm Davis Demographics (DD) each year to study enrollment trends. The past eight years of their reports can be found on PUSD's website. DD reviews birth rates, historical enrollment trends as well as housing development data from the City and County to develop a detailed forecast of enrollment. Forecasts for every school is modeled out to seven years into the future.

Pleasanton has generally seen long periods of steady growth. But due to uneven growth, the elementary schools in Northern Pleasanton have became overcrowded. The problem was acknowledged as early as 2014. However, the demographic data in 2014 showed the TK-5 students in decline. Still, a project to build a new 10th elementary school (E10) in Northern Pleasanton was added to Measure I1.

Measure I1 passed on Nov 2016 securing $35M for E10. In early 2018, the Board began discussions to develop E10. By then, a major demographic shift occurred in the TK-5 population showing rapid increases out to 2024. The forecast for 2024 increased by 801 students. As the need was clear, the development process moved forward. Then COVID-19 happened.

Throughout 2020 and 2021 efforts were made to develop E10 despite the turmoil of a pandemic and labor troubles. However, by the end of 2021, another major demographic shift occurred. During the pandemic TK-5 enrollment dropped by 573 students from 2018 levels to 2021. Furthermore, the loss of students was so significant that the initial peak in 2024, reported in 2018 was now forecast to be 965 students fewer. This delta represents more than an entire elementary school of students. Although uneven, there is now enough capacity to house all elementary school students for the foreseeable future in Pleasanton without building E10. The unevenness will be addressed through boundary changes.